Don't you just love it when life gets in the way of blogging? Well, today I'm back with more, a guest post by Little Green Footballs lizard chicagodudewhotrades:
Is America in economic decline? Everyday, it seems there is a new economic statistic about a weakening US economy or a news report about the US$ dropping in value against other currencies. My answer is: NO. Maybe right now the dollar is at a low level and portions of the American economy could be better, but the overall economy is solid and the dollar weakness is temporary. If you read history, it seems to be a good rule to never underestimate the American people or our economy. In fact, i think some of the nation's best economic times lie ahead.
I'm writing this mostly because I'm a member of a very popular website called Little Green Footballs (www.littlegreenfootballs.com). Due to my online name (chicagodudewhotrades) I get asked a lot of stock market and economic questions by my fellow LGF'ers. Writing this I hope will help my LGF friends out. This is my first attempt at writing something like this, so don't beat me up too bad!!!
I'm also writing this because I get tired of the mostly negative coverage of the economy by the national media. This is my small attempt to try and convince my fellow Americans that the economy isn't as bad as portrayed.
What gives me the right to write about economic issues? In a word: Nothing. I'm not a economist or a CEO of a business. I don't have a PH.D in Economics or International Finance. The bulk of my professional trading experience comes from several years spent working as a clerk in the trading pits of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. However, I have been able to make a decent living from day-trading the last few years. Day-trading is a very brutal, Darwinian profession. You either make money at this or go bankrupt. I'm still doing this, so I figure my ideas and advice have some credibility.
I think the best way to explain why I believe America's best economic days are ahead of us is to run down what is happening in the world and what I think may happen in the future.
Europe
The European Union has become a huge entity whose member states have a combined population of nearly 500 Million (1). However, I have come to believe that they are too big, too slow ,and most damaging, too bureaucratic.
Yes, right now the Euro is doing well against the Dollar. However, people seem to forget that a few years ago, the euro was trading at a record low of 82 cents against the dollar. (2)
Inflation is above the European Central Bank's public goal of 2% and rising (3). Western Europe has also always had systematic higher unemployment historically than the US. Eventually, economic fundamentals like these will catch up to the Euro.
You may read a lot about the grim future of Social Security. That is true. Basically, starting in a few years, more money will start being taken out of the program than going into it. However, Europe faces the same demographic issue. The big difference is that the working-age population of Europe is declining while America's is increasing.
Asia
Today when you think of Asia, one country comes to mind: China. China is a huge country with a huge population. Because of low wages, China has become the manufacturing center of the world. All that manufacturing has brought huge sums of wealth into China.
But China has many issues. All that manufacturing has lead to huge environmental problems (4). Thanks to China's brutal 1-child policy and a Asian cultural preference for male babies, China has demographic imbalances in their youngest generations. How can a nation be successful with a demographic imbalance like that? China's biggest problem however, may be it's own Communist government. Folks, I don't know any other way to say it.: Communism , Socialism, etc, just doesn't work.. Eventually, China will pay a huge price because of their system of government. Free, democratic, open market economies work, nothing else comes close. It is truly that simple and basic.
Africa
It is hard to write off a entire continent, but unfortunately that is what I'm basically doing with Africa. I don't think Africa has moved beyond a tribal identity yet. They will not grow or be economically successful until the people of Africa start thinking in terms of national identities and not just tribal.
Middle East
Currently the Middle East is doing well because of high oil prices that bring huge amounts of wealth into their nations. Historically, however nations with commodity-dependent economies do not succeed in the long run. There is a theory in economic circles called the 'commodity curse" . The theory states that commodity-dependent nations get politically and economically lazy because of the easy money pouring into their economy. I think this will happen in the Middle East someday. The Mid-East has one principle export: oil. What happens when that export runs out? There are questions about the true proven reserves of both Saudi Arabia and Kuwait (5). Back in the late 1990's when oil prices were low. Saudi government bonds were rated 'junk' status. This will give you a idea of what happens to the economic prospects of the region when the wells run dry.
Latin America
Latin America seems to be taken a turn for the worse lately. A couple governments seem to be going back down the Socialist path. Once again, democratic free market economies work, everything else doesn't come close. Democratic open market Brazil and Colombia are doing well. The ones going down the socialist path like Venezuela and Bolivia will have problems.
I see some parallels between the Middle East of today and the Japan of the 1980's. Remember how everyone thought back then that 'Japan, Inc." was going to be the world's largest economy and how they would be the globe's dominant economic power? How did that work out for Japan? I do think that the sub-prime mess and resulting housing price slump will continue to hurt the American economy.But this is a incredibly flexible economy that will survive this mess. In fact, i think the sub-prime problem will hurt other economies worse than ours just because our national economy is so resilient and others aren't.
I wanted to keep this brief. I didn't want to write 1 huge piece that went into all the above issues in detail. However,I plan on writing more about this. I want to learn from you as well as maybe teach a thing or two. If you have questions, criticisms, any thoughts about this, feel free to contact me. I can be reached at chicagodudewhotrades@gmail.com
Thanks for your time.
Sources
1. Website of the European Union www.europa.eu
2. Wikipedia's entry for the Euro Currency
3. Website of the European Central Bank www.ecb.eu
4. Financial Times article. China Report. Environment: 'Devasting price to pay for rampant growth' By Jamil Anderlini. Published: 9 Oct 2007
5. Reuters. "Kuwait oil reserves only half official estimate-PIW" . Published 20 Jan 2006
Tuesday, July 1, 2008
Sunday, February 24, 2008
Robbery My Rear End, The Tinley Park Killer Was There For Something Else
On February 2, 2008, a man entered the Lane Bryant store in Tinley Park where Harlem Avenue (IL-43) meets Interstate 80. He killed five of the women in the store, and left one survivor, who police believe, he also intended to kill. They called it an attempted armed robbery gone wrong. I don't think robbery was the motive.
If armed robbery had been the motive, there are several better prospects for quick cash at that interchange. There are several gas stations, convenience stores, and fast food resturants there with easy cash on hand, and lot of it in the tills. So why pick a Lane Bryant, a clothing store where most purchases are made via credit cards?
I am proposing an ulterior motive based upon the killer's looks in the sketch, the place he chose to do his crime, and the victims.
1. Since there are better prospects for quick cash via armed robbery, armed robbery and a botched robbery attempt seems not to be the motive.
2. The store he chose is a women's clothing store where there are unlikely to be any men.
3. All six victims were women.
4. He had each of them tied up in the backroom and he shot them execution style to make sure they were dead.
5. There was a police squad car in the parking lot. The squad responded to the shooting at the store because of the 9-1-1 call placed by the store's manager, not to any shots fired. I find it very odd that no one ever reported any gunshots. I suspect he was using a silencer on his weapon. What armed robber uses a silencer?
6. The sketch of the gunman shows him wearing a skullcap and a braid. To me, he appears to be stereotypical Nation of Islam. Whether he is or isn't is up for debate, but stereotypes exist for a reason.
Due to all of these, I suspect the shooting at the Lane Bryant were not motivated by robbery, but by something else, possibly sudden jihad syndrome (SJS). SJS seems a likely motivation here due to the target chosen, the victims chosen, and the way it was performed. This was done to instill terror, not to rob the store. Again, as in the NIU shooting, there is not concrete evidence, but many of the signs seem to point in that direction.
If armed robbery had been the motive, there are several better prospects for quick cash at that interchange. There are several gas stations, convenience stores, and fast food resturants there with easy cash on hand, and lot of it in the tills. So why pick a Lane Bryant, a clothing store where most purchases are made via credit cards?
I am proposing an ulterior motive based upon the killer's looks in the sketch, the place he chose to do his crime, and the victims.
1. Since there are better prospects for quick cash via armed robbery, armed robbery and a botched robbery attempt seems not to be the motive.
2. The store he chose is a women's clothing store where there are unlikely to be any men.
3. All six victims were women.
4. He had each of them tied up in the backroom and he shot them execution style to make sure they were dead.
5. There was a police squad car in the parking lot. The squad responded to the shooting at the store because of the 9-1-1 call placed by the store's manager, not to any shots fired. I find it very odd that no one ever reported any gunshots. I suspect he was using a silencer on his weapon. What armed robber uses a silencer?
6. The sketch of the gunman shows him wearing a skullcap and a braid. To me, he appears to be stereotypical Nation of Islam. Whether he is or isn't is up for debate, but stereotypes exist for a reason.
Due to all of these, I suspect the shooting at the Lane Bryant were not motivated by robbery, but by something else, possibly sudden jihad syndrome (SJS). SJS seems a likely motivation here due to the target chosen, the victims chosen, and the way it was performed. This was done to instill terror, not to rob the store. Again, as in the NIU shooting, there is not concrete evidence, but many of the signs seem to point in that direction.
Friday, February 22, 2008
Was the NIU Shooter a muslim with SJS?
It's been too long again for posting, but I plan on doing expose`s here rather than reporting. Too many people do reporting already.
It's been a little over a week since Steve Kazmierczak stepped onto the stage in Cole Hall at Northern Illinois University and killed five before committing suicide. Debbie Schlussel suggests that he may have have been a muslim committing SJS or Sudden Jihad Syndrome. I think I concur with her.
There were several things that stuck out as the incident being SJS, but they did not reveal themselves to me until the Chicago SunTimes published an article by a close friend of his Rasmieyh Abdelnabi. Here's the quick rundown of why it could be a case of SJS:
1. Steve Kazmierczak studied Arabic and became rather fluent in it. This in of and by itself means nothing, but his close friend was a religious muslim. According to Bruce Keegan, Rasmieyh Abdelnabi was known for writing pro-Hamas/anti-Israel artices in the paper.
2. He seemed to shoot mostly at the women in the class. Of the deaths, four were women, and one was a man protecting his girlfriend. I'd like to see a breakdown by gender of the injured. I suspect it will be overwhelmingly female.
3. He premeditated the entire event. He deliberately purchased guns for the event. Good guns too, that would not jam on him. He also erased any trace the police and FBI could use to figure out his motive.
4. His association with Rasmieyh Abdelnabi, his religous muslim friend is potentially the biggest clue we have. The mosque she goes to seems to yearn for the "early glorious days of Islam". It is unknown if he went to the mosque.
5. His radical muslim friend also mentions in the SunTimes article that he had come around on his opinions about Hamas while sidestepping what those opinions might be. Given that she is a religious muslim, I suspect he came around to favoring Hamas.
6. He was a sociology major who specialized in religion in prisons. The largest growing religion in prisons is Islam. He at least had an interest in it, if not embraced it.
In addition, Derrick Shareef, the guy who attempted to bomb and shoot up the CherryVale Mall in Rockford was a jihadi from DeKalb County. He hailed from Genoa, but attended the Islamic Society of Illinois Northern University Mosque. The same mosque Rasmieyh Abdelnabi belongs to.
Given this, I suspect, but cannot prove that the NIU shooting is a case of SJS. However, it is an angle that should be pursued. I suspect it will yield more clues than any other angle on this incident. Everything here is circumstantial, and could be wrong, but I suspect they might be right.
To the five deceased, rest in peace with God.
It's been a little over a week since Steve Kazmierczak stepped onto the stage in Cole Hall at Northern Illinois University and killed five before committing suicide. Debbie Schlussel suggests that he may have have been a muslim committing SJS or Sudden Jihad Syndrome. I think I concur with her.
There were several things that stuck out as the incident being SJS, but they did not reveal themselves to me until the Chicago SunTimes published an article by a close friend of his Rasmieyh Abdelnabi. Here's the quick rundown of why it could be a case of SJS:
1. Steve Kazmierczak studied Arabic and became rather fluent in it. This in of and by itself means nothing, but his close friend was a religious muslim. According to Bruce Keegan, Rasmieyh Abdelnabi was known for writing pro-Hamas/anti-Israel artices in the paper.
2. He seemed to shoot mostly at the women in the class. Of the deaths, four were women, and one was a man protecting his girlfriend. I'd like to see a breakdown by gender of the injured. I suspect it will be overwhelmingly female.
3. He premeditated the entire event. He deliberately purchased guns for the event. Good guns too, that would not jam on him. He also erased any trace the police and FBI could use to figure out his motive.
4. His association with Rasmieyh Abdelnabi, his religous muslim friend is potentially the biggest clue we have. The mosque she goes to seems to yearn for the "early glorious days of Islam". It is unknown if he went to the mosque.
5. His radical muslim friend also mentions in the SunTimes article that he had come around on his opinions about Hamas while sidestepping what those opinions might be. Given that she is a religious muslim, I suspect he came around to favoring Hamas.
6. He was a sociology major who specialized in religion in prisons. The largest growing religion in prisons is Islam. He at least had an interest in it, if not embraced it.
In addition, Derrick Shareef, the guy who attempted to bomb and shoot up the CherryVale Mall in Rockford was a jihadi from DeKalb County. He hailed from Genoa, but attended the Islamic Society of Illinois Northern University Mosque. The same mosque Rasmieyh Abdelnabi belongs to.
Given this, I suspect, but cannot prove that the NIU shooting is a case of SJS. However, it is an angle that should be pursued. I suspect it will yield more clues than any other angle on this incident. Everything here is circumstantial, and could be wrong, but I suspect they might be right.
To the five deceased, rest in peace with God.
Sunday, January 6, 2008
Obama, Articulate But Not Squeeky Clean
Yeah, it's been too long since an update or any activity. I fully apologise for that.
Now, down to business.
I've heard reports from various people about how clean and honest Barack Hussein Obama is. I call it a bunch of baloney. Someone somewhere is trying to sell a bridge, and a really big one somewhere. We know all about the Clinton Body Count, and how slick Edwards is (I'll stick to the Democrats as this is their primary), but there seems to be little nationwide knowledge about Antoin "Tony" Rezko and Obama's dealings with him. Obama also seems to avoid questions about why he wants to be president as well. Let's shine a light on a few things, shall we.
Obama closed on a house the day before Rezko purchased a vacant lot next to Obama's house. Let's let the Chicago Tribune tell some more:
Exactly, but there is more to the story. The transactions were anything but normal.
But why did Obama feel the need to pay far more than the land was worth. About $60,000 more?
Let's delve a bit deeper. It turns out that Obama's ex-boss is one of Rezko's partners. This is from the Chicago Sun-Times:
And Obama was working at Davis's law firm at the time, and knew very well who Rezko was. And there's another connection to the Illinois Politicial Mafia (maybe that's derogatory toward the mafia):
Wait a minute, appointments made by Blago at Rezko's request? Hold the phone! Blago's already suspected to be "Official A" for his own corruption in the state.
Patrick Fitgerald has been very careful in his attempts to corner the Blago administration and indict the guilty. The guilty, which I feel, extends to the governor, Mayor Daley, Alexi Giannoulias(state tresurer), and many more. Rezko was one of Blago's top fundrasiers, as well as involved in dealings with Obama. So, how well did Obama know Rezko? Newsmax.com gives us a hint of it:
So did Obama keep his distance from Rezko?
The answer is a resounding no.
In Illinois, nothing seems to happen without being connected to something else. To be honest, Blago, Daley, Todd Stroger, William Beavers, and Obama are all Chicago Democrats. Being as such, they come from the same politicial machine, that famous Chicago Democratic Machine. They practice typical Machine politics as well, with all the bells, whistles, and corruption that goes with it. So why would the Machine decide they want a candidate for president? After all, they have their own fiefdom in Cook County and now across the state of Illinois. Why the presidency as well?
The answer does not lie in what they can do for America or even the White House. It lies in what they can get rid of in Illinois. Patrick Fitzgerald, the US Attorney for the Northern District of Illinois and the Federal Bureau of Investigations are hot on the trail of the Chicago Machine and its corruption. They have sent former Illinois governor George Ryan to prison for his own kickback scheme, Licenses for Bribes. And they have indicted people involved in the Daley admninstration in Operation Silver Shovel. Patrick Fitzgerald was appointed US Attorney by President George Bush at the suggestion of former Senator Peter Fitzgerald (no relation). The same Peter Fitzgerald who was pushed out by the Republican Party in Illinois.
So what can Obama do as president to Fitzgerald and the FBI? He can fire Fitzgerald as the US Attorney and put a stop to the investigation by the FBI. Removing Fitzgerald from the equation removes a major thorn in the side of the Machine. With Fitzgerald and the FBI gone, they would be free to continue their corruption and free to manipulate the vote in Illinois. They could also cover their tracks better and make the trail of corruption harder for the next prosecutors to follow.
That is why Obama is running for president. It's not the fame, it's not the foreign policy, it's not even for change as he so proudly exclaims. It's all for his politicial buddies and allies in the Chicago Democratic Machine and taking the federal heat off them.
Now, down to business.
I've heard reports from various people about how clean and honest Barack Hussein Obama is. I call it a bunch of baloney. Someone somewhere is trying to sell a bridge, and a really big one somewhere. We know all about the Clinton Body Count, and how slick Edwards is (I'll stick to the Democrats as this is their primary), but there seems to be little nationwide knowledge about Antoin "Tony" Rezko and Obama's dealings with him. Obama also seems to avoid questions about why he wants to be president as well. Let's shine a light on a few things, shall we.
Obama closed on a house the day before Rezko purchased a vacant lot next to Obama's house. Let's let the Chicago Tribune tell some more:
In normal circumstances, the two real estate transactions probably wouldn't have raised an eyebrow. There is, after all, nothing illegal or untoward about an aggressive developer buying hot property next door to a rising political star.
Exactly, but there is more to the story. The transactions were anything but normal.
"I told them if you can spare another 5 or 10 feet, I'd be happy to purchase it from you," Obama said. "They came back and said they could sell us up to 10 feet."
Using a standard formula, Obama's appraiser estimated the 1,500-square-foot portion at a market value of $40,500.
But Obama felt it would be fair to pay the Rezkos $104,500, or a sixth of their original $625,000 purchase price, because he was acquiring a sixth of their land. The sale closed in January 2006.
But why did Obama feel the need to pay far more than the land was worth. About $60,000 more?
Let's delve a bit deeper. It turns out that Obama's ex-boss is one of Rezko's partners. This is from the Chicago Sun-Times:
When Barack Obama took a job at a small Chicago law firm in 1993, the first name on the door of the firm was Allison S. Davis.
Five years later, having left his Davis Miner Barnhill & Galland firm, Davis invested in Antoin "Tony'' Rezko's final government-subsidized, low-income housing project, state records show, in a deal handled by Davis' former law firm.
Davis and Rezko also went into business together, building upscale homes in the booming Kenwood neighborhood where Davis lives. The legal work on those deals was also done by Davis' former law firm, where Obama was working.
And Obama was working at Davis's law firm at the time, and knew very well who Rezko was. And there's another connection to the Illinois Politicial Mafia (maybe that's derogatory toward the mafia):
Four years ago, Blagojevich appointed Davis to the Illinois State Board of Investment, which controls state pension funds -- one of a series of appointments the governor made at Rezko's request.
Wait a minute, appointments made by Blago at Rezko's request? Hold the phone! Blago's already suspected to be "Official A" for his own corruption in the state.
A court document filed by federal prosecutors just before Christmas claims Blagojevich boasted to a key government witness about awarding contracts and other work to boost campaign fundraising.
The document was filed in the criminal case of Antoin “Tony” Rezko, one Blagojevich’s top fundraisers, who is scheduled to go on trial in February. Rezko is charged in a fraud scheme that included shaking down companies that wanted state business.
Blagojevich isn’t named in the document, which refers to “Public Official A.” Attorneys who have asked not to be quoted by name due to grand jury secrecy have said Blagojevich was Public Official A.
-Bloomington Normal Pantagraph
Patrick Fitgerald has been very careful in his attempts to corner the Blago administration and indict the guilty. The guilty, which I feel, extends to the governor, Mayor Daley, Alexi Giannoulias(state tresurer), and many more. Rezko was one of Blago's top fundrasiers, as well as involved in dealings with Obama. So, how well did Obama know Rezko? Newsmax.com gives us a hint of it:
Sixteen years ago, Chicago businessman Antoin "Tony" Rezko tried to hire bright young Harvard law student Barack Obama to work in his real estate development company.
Obama said no, but it was the start of a political friendship.
Rezko contributed thousands of dollars and raised thousands more as Obama ran for the Illinois legislature, the U.S. House and the U.S. Senate. He was even involved in Obama's purchase of a family home.
So did Obama keep his distance from Rezko?
While Obama turned down Rezko's offer of a job back in 1991, he ended up in a group of real estate deals involving the developer anyway.
The answer is a resounding no.
In Illinois, nothing seems to happen without being connected to something else. To be honest, Blago, Daley, Todd Stroger, William Beavers, and Obama are all Chicago Democrats. Being as such, they come from the same politicial machine, that famous Chicago Democratic Machine. They practice typical Machine politics as well, with all the bells, whistles, and corruption that goes with it. So why would the Machine decide they want a candidate for president? After all, they have their own fiefdom in Cook County and now across the state of Illinois. Why the presidency as well?
The answer does not lie in what they can do for America or even the White House. It lies in what they can get rid of in Illinois. Patrick Fitzgerald, the US Attorney for the Northern District of Illinois and the Federal Bureau of Investigations are hot on the trail of the Chicago Machine and its corruption. They have sent former Illinois governor George Ryan to prison for his own kickback scheme, Licenses for Bribes. And they have indicted people involved in the Daley admninstration in Operation Silver Shovel. Patrick Fitzgerald was appointed US Attorney by President George Bush at the suggestion of former Senator Peter Fitzgerald (no relation). The same Peter Fitzgerald who was pushed out by the Republican Party in Illinois.
So what can Obama do as president to Fitzgerald and the FBI? He can fire Fitzgerald as the US Attorney and put a stop to the investigation by the FBI. Removing Fitzgerald from the equation removes a major thorn in the side of the Machine. With Fitzgerald and the FBI gone, they would be free to continue their corruption and free to manipulate the vote in Illinois. They could also cover their tracks better and make the trail of corruption harder for the next prosecutors to follow.
That is why Obama is running for president. It's not the fame, it's not the foreign policy, it's not even for change as he so proudly exclaims. It's all for his politicial buddies and allies in the Chicago Democratic Machine and taking the federal heat off them.
Friday, December 7, 2007
The Sharks are Circling, and They Smell Blood in Springfield
The Feds are investigating some of Patti Blagojevich's real estate deals in a three-year probe of Blago's corruption.
Tony Rezko was indicted last year on federal charges of soliciting kickbacks from firms involved in state contracts. He is involved in a shady real estate deal with presidential candidate Barak Obama.
Patricia Blagojevich's real estate deals with power brokers close to her husband first came under scrutiny in 2005 when the Tribune disclosed her eight-year business relationship with Antoin "Tony" Rezko, a Chicago developer who became one of the governor's top fundraisers and a member of his kitchen cabinet.
Tony Rezko was indicted last year on federal charges of soliciting kickbacks from firms involved in state contracts. He is involved in a shady real estate deal with presidential candidate Barak Obama.
Blago Gets Sued
Rod Blagojevich is at it again, trying to appropriate money for his own pet projects without the approval of the General Assembly. However, Ron Gidwitz of the Illinois Job Coalition is taking him to task for it. According to Andy Shaw of ABC7, Gidwitz is suing Blago to stop him from moving money appropriated for other projects to health care.
Oak Park!?! Posh Oak Park needs a free clinic!?!
What's Blago thinking!?
No, Governor Nero, it is not "Scrooge-like" of Mr. Gidwitz. It is more "Hugo-like" or "Fidel-like" or, dare I say "Mugabe-like" of you to move money without the permission of the General Assembly to your own pet projects.
The governor is expanding access to free breast and cervical cancer screenings for women to three additional health clinics, including one in Oak Park, even though a lawsuit supported by a lot of Illinois lawmakers is challenging Blagojevich's decision to spend money on new health programs without the approval of the state legislature.
Oak Park!?! Posh Oak Park needs a free clinic!?!
What's Blago thinking!?
"It's mind boggling that the heir of a shampoo fortune would go out of his way to take health care away through the courts. And, yeah, it is Scrooge-like in many ways," said Blagojevich.
No, Governor Nero, it is not "Scrooge-like" of Mr. Gidwitz. It is more "Hugo-like" or "Fidel-like" or, dare I say "Mugabe-like" of you to move money without the permission of the General Assembly to your own pet projects.
Monday, December 3, 2007
Where's Roddo?
Someone should make a children's book when all is said and done. You know, the point being to find the guy in the striped shirt or something like that. At least I have a name for it: "Where's Roddo?". I'm willing to bet it could become a best seller, maybe even a cult following.
Here's Tom Cross's staff (R-Oswego) on the debacle with Blago at the Hawks game:
How apt an image.
Here's Tom Cross's staff (R-Oswego) on the debacle with Blago at the Hawks game:
"What we really need is a political Zamboni," said David Dring, spokesman for House Republican leader Tom Cross of Oswego, "to clean up this mess that's been the 2007 legislative session."
How apt an image.
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